1990—2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的疾病负担及未来趋势预测研究

doi:10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2408146

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摘要目的分析1990—2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的发病和疾病负担情况，预测2022—2036年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的发病率，为儿童先天性出生缺陷的预防提供参考。方法利用2021全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, GBD 2021）数据库，通过发病率和伤残调整生命年（disability-adjusted life year, DALY）等指标描述疾病负担，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率及DALY率的变化趋势。采用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）对5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率的趋势进行拟合，同时预测2022—2036年5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率。结果 2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率为737.28/10万，其中先天性肌肉骨骼/肢体畸形位居发病率首位（307.15/10万），其次为先天性心脏畸形（223.53/10万）、泌尿生殖道先天畸形（74.99/10万）和消化道先天性畸形（62.61/10万）等。1990—2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率、DALY率分别以平均每年1.73%和5.42%的速度下降。预测结果显示，2022—2036年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率呈现降低的趋势：5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率从2022年的892.36/10万降低至2036年的783.35/10万。结论 1990—2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的发病率和疾病负担均呈下降趋势；预测未来至2036年，该发病率将持续降低。

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	黄冰怡
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	赵倩雯

关键词 ：先天性出生缺陷, 疾病负担, Joinpoint回归模型, 疾病预测, 儿童

Abstract：Objective To study the incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence of congenital birth defects in this population from 2022 to 2036, providing a reference for the prevention of congenital birth defects in children. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were employed to describe the disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in incidence and DALY rates of congenital birth defects in children under five. A grey prediction model GM(1,1) was applied to fit the trend of incidence rates of congenital birth defects in this age group and to predict the incidence from 2022 to 2036. Results In 2021, the incidence rate of congenital birth defects among children under five in China was 737.28 per 100 000. Among these, congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities had the highest incidence rate at 307.15 per 100 000, followed by congenital heart defects (223.53 per 100 000), congenital urinary and genital tract malformations (74.99 per 100 000), and congenital gastrointestinal malformations (62.61 per 100 000). From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate and DALY rate of congenital birth defects in children under five in China decreased at an average annual rate of 1.73% and 5.42%, respectively. The prediction analysis indicated a decreasing trend in the incidence of congenital birth defects among children under five in China from 2022 to 2036, with the incidence rate dropping from 892.36 per 100 000 in 2022 to 783.35 per 100 000 in 2036. Conclusions The incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China showed a significant declining trend from 1990 to 2021. It is predicted that this incidence will continue to decrease until 2036.

Key words： Congenital birth defect Disease burden Joinpoint regression model Disease prediction Child

收稿日期: 2024-08-29

通讯作者: 赵倩雯，女，副主任技师。Email：zhaoqianwen0268@163.com。 E-mail: zhaoqianwen0268@163.com

作者简介: 黄冰怡，女，本科，主管技师；

引用本文:

黄冰怡,赵芹,彭丹莉等. 1990—2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的疾病负担及未来趋势预测研究[J]. 中国当代儿科杂志, 2025, 27(3): 347-353.

HUANG Bing-Yi,ZHAO Qin,PENG Dan-Li et al. Burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and prediction of future trend[J]. CJCP, 2025, 27(3): 347-353.

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http://www.zgddek.com/CN/10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2408146 或 http://www.zgddek.com/CN/Y2025/V27/I3/347

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