Abstract：Objective To develop a risk prediction model for severe adenovirus pneumonia (AVP) in children, and to explore the appropriate timing for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy for severe AVP. Methods Medical data of 1 046 children with AVP were retrospectively analyzed, and a risk prediction model for severe AVP was established using multivariate logistic regression. The model was validated with 102 children with AVP. Then, 75 children aged ≤14 years who were considered at risk of developing severe AVP by the model were prospectively enrolled and divided into three groups (A, B and C) in order of visit, with 25 children in each group. Group A received symptomatic supportive therapy only. With the exception of symptomatic supportive therapy, group B received IVIG treatment at a dose of 1g/(kg·d) for 2 consecutive days, before progressing to severe AVP. With the exception of symptomatic supportive therapy, group C received IVIG treatment at a dose of 1 g/(kg·d) for 2 consecutive days after progressing to severe AVP. Efficacy and related laboratory indicators were compared among the three groups after treatment. Results Age<18.5 months, underlying diseases, fever duration >6.5 days, hemoglobin level <84.5 g/L, alanine transaminase level >113.5 U/L, and co-infection with bacteria were the six variables that entered into the risk prediction model for severe AVP. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862, sensitivity of 0.878, and specificity of 0.848. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good consistency between the predicted values and the actual observations (P>0.05). After treatment, group B had the shortest fever duration and hospital stay, the lowest hospitalization costs, the highest effective rate of treatment, the lowest incidence of complications, the lowest white blood cell count and interleukin (IL)-1, IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 levels, and the highest level of tumor necrosis factor alpha (P<0.05). Conclusions The risk model for severe AVP established in this study has good value in predicting the development of severe AVP. IVIG therapy before progression to severe AVP is more effective in treating AVP in children.
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