1990—2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的疾病负担及未来趋势预测研究

doi:10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2408146

Abstract
Figure/Table
References(33)
Related Citation (15)
Read Tracking
Download Tracking

Download: PDF (814 KB) HTML
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS) Supporting Info

Abstract Objective To study the incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence of congenital birth defects in this population from 2022 to 2036, providing a reference for the prevention of congenital birth defects in children. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were employed to describe the disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in incidence and DALY rates of congenital birth defects in children under five. A grey prediction model GM(1,1) was applied to fit the trend of incidence rates of congenital birth defects in this age group and to predict the incidence from 2022 to 2036. Results In 2021, the incidence rate of congenital birth defects among children under five in China was 737.28 per 100 000. Among these, congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities had the highest incidence rate at 307.15 per 100 000, followed by congenital heart defects (223.53 per 100 000), congenital urinary and genital tract malformations (74.99 per 100 000), and congenital gastrointestinal malformations (62.61 per 100 000). From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate and DALY rate of congenital birth defects in children under five in China decreased at an average annual rate of 1.73% and 5.42%, respectively. The prediction analysis indicated a decreasing trend in the incidence of congenital birth defects among children under five in China from 2022 to 2036, with the incidence rate dropping from 892.36 per 100 000 in 2022 to 783.35 per 100 000 in 2036. Conclusions The incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China showed a significant declining trend from 1990 to 2021. It is predicted that this incidence will continue to decrease until 2036.

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	HUANG Bing-Yi
	ZHAO Qin
	PENG Dan-Li
	WANG Man-Yi
	ZHAO Qian-Wen

Key words： Congenital birth defect Disease burden Joinpoint regression model Disease prediction Child

Received: 29 August 2024

Corresponding Authors: Zhao Q-W, Email: zhaoqianwen0268@163.com E-mail: zhaoqianwen0268@163.com

Cite this article:

HUANG Bing-Yi,ZHAO Qin,PENG Dan-Li et al. Burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and prediction of future trend[J]. CJCP, 2025, 27(3): 347-353.

URL:

http://www.zgddek.com/EN/10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2408146 OR http://www.zgddek.com/EN/Y2025/V27/I3/347

	Nelson KB, Bingham P, Edwards EM, et al. Antecedents of neonatal encephalopathy in the Vermont Oxford Network Encephalopathy Registry[J]. Pediatrics, 2012, 130(5): 878-886. PMID: 23071210. PMCID: PMC4074646. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2012-0714.
	Lynn MK, Aquino MSR, Self SCW, et al. TORCH congenital syndrome infections in Central America's Northern Triangle[J]. Microorganisms, 2023, 11(2): 257. PMID: 36838223. PMCID: PMC9964893. DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms11020257.
	Kang L, Cao G, Jing W, et al. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality of congenital birth defects from 1990 to 2019[J]. Eur J Pediatr, 2023, 182(4): 1781-1792. PMID: 36781460. DOI: 10.1007/s00431-023-04865-w.
	GBD 2019 Under-5 Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, and national progress towards sustainable development goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the global burden of disease study 2019[J]. Lancet, 2021, 398(10303): 870-905. PMID: 34416195. PMCID: PMC8429803. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01207-1.
	GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021[J]. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2162-2203. PMID: 38762324. PMCID: PMC11120204. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00933-4.
	Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, et al. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J]. Stat Med, 2000, 19(3): 335-351. PMID: 10649300. DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::aid-sim336>3.0.co;2-z
	7 秦宇辰, 郭威. 年度变化百分比与年均变化百分比在医学研究变化趋势分析中的应用[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2022, 39(3): 470-473. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2022.03.036.
	8 颜杰, 相丽驰, 方积乾. 灰色预测模型及SAS实现[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2006(1): 75. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2006.01.025.
	Dolan SM, Callaghan WM, Rasmussen SA. Birth defects and preterm birth: overlapping outcomes with a shared strategy for research and prevention[J]. Birth Defects Res A Clin Mol Teratol, 2009, 85(11): 874-878. PMID: 19824057. DOI: 10.1002/bdra.20634.
	Anderka M, Mai CT, Romitti PA, et al. Development and implementation of the first national data quality standards for population-based birth defects surveillance programs in the United States[J]. BMC Public Health, 2015, 15: 925. PMID: 26386816. PMCID: PMC4575466. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-2223-2.
	Heisey AS, Bell EM, Herdt-Losavio ML, et al. Surveillance of congenital malformations in infants conceived through assisted reproductive technology or other fertility treatments[J]. Birth Defects Res A Clin Mol Teratol, 2015, 103(2): 119-126. PMID: 25684703. DOI: 10.1002/bdra.23355.
	Boyle B, Addor MC, Arriola L, et al. Estimating global burden of disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data[J]. Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed, 2018, 103(1): F22-F28. PMID: 28667189. PMCID: PMC5750368. DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2016-311845.
	13 United Nations. The millennium development goals report 2015[EB/OL]. [2024-07-25]. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/es/UNDP_MDG_Report_2015.pdf.
	Perin J, Mulick A, Yeung D, et al. Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000-19: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the sustainable development goals[J]. Lancet Child Adolesc Health, 2022, 6(2): 106-115. PMID: 34800370. PMCID: PMC8786667. DOI: 10.1016/S2352-4642(21)00311-4.
	Michalski AM, Richardson SD, Browne ML, et al. Sex ratios among infants with birth defects, national birth defects prevention study, 1997-2009[J]. Am J Med Genet A, 2015, 167A(5): 1071-1081. PMID: 25711982. DOI: 10.1002/ajmg.a.36865.
	Eriksson JG, Kajantie E, Osmond C, et al. Boys live dangerously in the womb[J]. Am J Hum Biol, 2010, 22(3): 330-335. PMID: 19844898. PMCID: PMC3923652. DOI: 10.1002/ajhb.20995.
	Clifton VL. Review: sex and the human placenta: mediating differential strategies of fetal growth and survival[J]. Placenta, 2010, 31 (Suppl): S33-S39. PMID: 20004469. DOI: 10.1016/j.placenta.2009.11.010.
	Barker DJ. Fetal origins of coronary heart disease[J]. Br Heart J, 1993, 69(3): 195-196. PMID: 8461215. PMCID: PMC1024978. DOI: 10.1136/hrt.69.3.195.
	Marengo LK, Flood TJ, Ethen MK, et al. Study of selected birth defects among American Indian/Alaska Native population: a multi-state population-based retrospective study, 1999-2007[J]. Birth Defects Res, 2018, 110(19): 1412-1418. PMID: 30403007. PMCID: PMC6425493. DOI: 10.1002/bdr2.1397.
	Carmichael SL. Birth defects epidemiology[J]. Eur J Med Genet, 2014, 57(8): 355-358. PMID: 24657225. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejmg.2014.03.002.
	21 孙海波. 环境污染对妊娠结局影响的研究进展[J]. 职业与健康, 2015, 31(15): 2144-2146. DOI: 10.13329/j.cnki.zyyjk.2015.0746.
	Ravindra K, Chanana N, Mor S. Exposure to air pollutants and risk of congenital anomalies: a systematic review and metaanalysis[J]. Sci Total Environ, 2021, 765: 142772. PMID: 33183823. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142772.
	Castoldi AF, Johansson C, Onishchenko N, et al. Human developmental neurotoxicity of methylmercury: impact of variables and risk modifiers[J]. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol, 2008, 51(2): 201-214. PMID: 18367301. DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2008.01.016.
	Harris BS, Bishop KC, Kemeny HR, et al. Risk factors for birth defects[J]. Obstet Gynecol Surv, 2017, 72(2): 123-135. PMID: 28218773. DOI: 10.1097/OGX.0000000000000405.
	Cleary-Goldman J, Malone FD, Vidaver J, et al. Impact of maternal age on obstetric outcome[J]. Obstet Gynecol, 2005, 105(5 Pt 1): 983-990. PMID: 15863534. DOI: 10.1097/01.AOG.0000158118.75532.51.
	Kerr SM, Van Bennekom CM, Mitchell AA. Tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis vaccine (Tdap) in pregnancy and risk of major birth defects in the offspring[J]. Birth Defects Res, 2020, 112(5): 393-403. PMID: 31903700. DOI: 10.1002/bdr2.1642.
	Eskes TK. Possible basis for primary prevention of birth defects with folic acid[J]. Fetal Diagn Ther, 1994, 9(3): 149-154. PMID: 8060509. DOI: 10.1159/000263923.
	Streissguth AP, Bookstein FL, Barr HM, et al. Risk factors for adverse life outcomes in fetal alcohol syndrome and fetal alcohol effects[J]. J Dev Behav Pediatr, 2004, 25(4): 228-238. PMID: 15308923. DOI: 10.1097/00004703-200408000-00002.
	Maktabi MA, Vossaert L, Van den Veyver IB. Cell-based noninvasive prenatal testing (cbNIPT): a review on the current developments and future prospects[J]. Clin Obstet Gynecol, 2023, 66(3): 636-648. PMID: 37650673. PMCID: PMC10491429. DOI: 10.1097/GRF.0000000000000798.
	Moufarrej MN, Bianchi DW, Shaw GM, et al. Noninvasive prenatal testing using circulating DNA and RNA: advances, challenges, and possibilities[J]. Annu Rev Biomed Data Sci, 2023, 6: 397-418. PMID: 37196360. PMCID: PMC10528197. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-biodatasci-020722-094144.
	31 李华锋, 徐从红, 冯桐, 等. 无创产前基因检测筛查胎儿染色体异常的临床应用价值[J]. 检验医学与临床, 2024, 21(8): 1087-1091. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-9455.2024.08.013.
	32 温雪恒, 翟巾帼, 熊安琪, 等. 全球群组化母婴保健的现状及启示[J]. 中国护理管理, 2021, 21(11): 1720-1724. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-1756.2021.11.025.
	Sharma J, O'Connor M, Rima Jolivet R. Group antenatal care models in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic evidence synthesis[J]. Reprod Health, 2018, 15(1): 38. PMID: 29506531. PMCID: PMC5836451. DOI: 10.1186/s12978-018-0476-9.