目的 调查轮状病毒感染腹泻患儿心肌损伤的发生率，分析其影响因素并建立预测模型。 方法 选择2021年1月—2023年12月苏州市吴江区儿童医院接诊的轮状病毒感染患儿203例进行回顾性分析。根据有无心肌损伤将患儿分为心肌损伤组与无心肌损伤组，收集并比较2组基本情况与就诊时实验室指标，以LASSO回归筛选潜在影响因素后用多因素logistic回归评估独立影响因素，建立列线图模型并进行验证。 结果 203例轮状病毒感染患儿中有53例（26.1%）出现心肌损伤。年龄、重度脱水、代谢性酸中毒、红细胞体积分布宽度、血钠与轮状病毒感染腹泻患儿心肌损伤密切相关（P<0.05）。构建的列线图模型的受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.841（95%CI：0.777~0.905），灵敏度为73.6%，特异度为85.3%。模型曲线与理想模型基本拟合成对角线。决策曲线显示，当预测概率阈值为0.18~0.98时，使用该研究模型预测轮状病毒感染腹泻患儿心肌损伤的净获益最高。 结论 该研究建立的模型可预测轮状病毒感染腹泻患儿心肌损伤风险。

Objective To investigate the incidence of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea, analyze its risk factors, and develop a predictive model for myocardial injury. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 203 children diagnosed with rotavirus infection at the Suzhou Wujiang District Children's Hospital from January 2021 to December 2023. The children were divided into groups based on the presence or absence of myocardial injury. Basic information and laboratory indicators at admission were collected and compared between the two groups. LASSO regression was used to screen potential risk factors, followed by multivariate logistic regression to evaluate independent factors. A nomogram model was established and validated. Results Out of 203 children with rotavirus infection, 53 cases (26.1%) showed myocardial injury. Age, severe dehydration, metabolic acidosis, red cell distribution width, and blood sodium were closely associated with myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predictive model of myocardial injury was 0.841 (95%CI: 0.777-0.905), with a sensitivity of 73.6% and specificity of 85.3%. The model curve closely fit the ideal diagonal line. Decision curve analysis showed that using the model for prediction resulted in the highest net benefit when the probability threshold was 0.18-0.98. Conclusions The model developed in this study can predict the risk of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea.