Risk factors for mortality in children with severe drowning: a 10-year single-center retrospective study

Yi-Xian YANG, Lyu YAN, Hua YU, Lyu-Ping XIONG, Hong LIU, Qiang CHEN

Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics ›› 2026, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3) : 309-315.

PDF(680 KB)
HTML
PDF(680 KB)
HTML
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics ›› 2026, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3) : 309-315. DOI: 10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2508027
CLINICAL RESEARCH

Risk factors for mortality in children with severe drowning: a 10-year single-center retrospective study

Author information +
History +

Abstract

Objective To study the clinical characteristics of children with severe drowning admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit and to identify risk factors for mortality. Methods Clinical data of 49 children with severe drowning admitted between January 2015 and December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for mortality and to construct a prediction model. Model performance for mortality risk was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Among the 49 patients, the mortality rate was 24% (12/49), and the incidence of neurological sequelae among survivors was 22% (8/37). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (OR=0.43, P<0.05), drowning duration (OR=1.22, P<0.05), and total prehospital time (per 10 minutes increase, OR=1.85, P<0.05) were associated with mortality. A mortality prediction model was constructed based on these three factors: logit(P)=6.26-0.85×GCS score at admission + 0.20×drowning duration (minutes) + 0.62×[total prehospital time (minutes)/10]. The area under the ROC curve was 0.912 (P<0.001), with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 91.9%. Conclusions Severe drowning in children has a high mortality and a high rate of adverse outcomes. Admission GCS score, drowning duration, and total prehospital time are core risk factors for predicting mortality, and their combination serves as an effective indicator for early risk stratification.

Key words

Drowning / Pediatric intensive care unit / Prognosis / Risk factor / Child

Cite this article

Download Citations
Yi-Xian YANG , Lyu YAN , Hua YU , et al . Risk factors for mortality in children with severe drowning: a 10-year single-center retrospective study[J]. Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics. 2026, 28(3): 309-315 https://doi.org/10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2508027

References

[1]
李蕾, 张志泉, 郑成中, 等. 儿童溺水的防治方案专家共识[J]. 中国当代儿科杂志, 2021, 23(1): 12-17. PMCID: PMC7818148. DOI: 10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2008005 .
[2]
Pati S, Chauhan A, Pant PR, et al. Historic first global status report on drowning prevention highlights challenges and opportunities for preventing drowning among children and adolescents[J]. J Paediatr Child Health, 2025, 61(5): 817-819. PMCID: PMC12053230. DOI: 10.1111/jpc.70057 .
[3]
Pfenninger J, Bachmann D, Wagner BP. Survivors with bad outcome after hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy: full-term neonates compare unfavourably with children[J]. Swiss Med Wkly, 2001, 131(19-20): 267-272. DOI: 10.4414/smw.2001.09717 .
[4]
Kara SG, Bayram B, Halaç ŞŞ, et al. Predicting mortality and safe discharge in drowning victims: a comprehensive analysis of neurological and clinical outcomes in the emergency department[J]. Turk J Emerg Med, 2025, 25(3): 208-215. PMCID: PMC12309818. DOI: 10.4103/tjem.tjem_248_24 .
[5]
Reizine F, Michelet P, Delbove A, et al. Development and validation of a clinico-biological score to predict outcomes in patients with drowning-associated cardiac arrest[J]. Am J Emerg Med, 2024, 81: 69-74. DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2024.04.032 .
[6]
Popp LM, Ashburn NP, McGinnis HD, et al. Prehospital cross-sectional study of drowning patients across the United States[J]. Wilderness Environ Med, 2021, 32(3): 271-277. PMCID: PMC9052871. DOI: 10.1016/j.wem.2021.03.003 .
[7]
van Beeck EF, Branche CM, Szpilman D, et al. A new definition of drowning: towards documentation and prevention of a global public health problem[J]. Bull World Health Organ, 2005, 83(11): 853-856. PMCID: PMC2626470.
[8]
Southard-Goebel C, Pike F, Rowan CM, et al. Risk factors associated with development of multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome after pediatric drowning[J]. Pediatr Emerg Care, 2023, 39(12): 902-906. DOI: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000003071 .
[9]
McCallin TE, Dezfulian C, Bierens, et al. 2024 American Heart Association and American Academy of Pediatrics focused update on special circumstances: resuscitation following drowning: an update to the American Heart Association guidelines for cardiopulmonary resuscitation and emergency cardiovascular care[J]. Pediatrics, 2024, 154(6): e2024068444. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2024-068444 .
[10]
彭迎港, 谢乐云, 余阗, 等. 儿童淹溺53例临床特征及预后分析[J]. 中国小儿急救医学, 2024, 31(1): 47-51. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-4912.2024.01.009 .
[11]
Peri F, De Nardi L, Canuto A, et al. Drowning in children and predictive parameters: a 15-year multicenter retrospective analysis[J]. Pediatr Emerg Care, 2023, 39(7): 516-523. DOI: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000002987 .
[12]
Dagher H, Chaftari AM, Hachem R, et al. Procalcitonin level monitoring in antibiotic de-escalation and stewardship program for patients with cancer and febrile neutropenia[J]. Cancers (Basel), 2024, 16(20): 3450. PMCID: PMC11506002. DOI: 10.3390/cancers16203450 .
[13]
Gao X, Cai S, Li X, et al. Sepsis-induced immunosuppression: mechanisms, biomarkers and immunotherapy[J]. Front Immunol, 2025, 16: 1577105. PMCID: PMC12069044. DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2025.1577105 .
[14]
Annane D, Briegel J, Granton D, et al. Corticosteroids for treating sepsis in children and adults[J]. Cochrane Database Syst Rev, 2025, 6(6): CD002243. PMCID: PMC12138977. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD002243.pub5 .
[15]
Moffett BS, Lee S, Woodend K, et al. Evaluation of antimicrobial utilization in the pediatric drowning population[J]. J Pediatric Infect Dis Soc, 2021, 10(2): 179-182. DOI: 10.1093/jpids/piaa021 .
[16]
Liberati C, Brigadoi G, Barbieri E, et al. Antimicrobial stewardship programs in pediatric intensive care units: a systematic scoping review[J]. Antibiotics (Basel), 2025, 14(2): 130. PMCID: PMC11852047. DOI: 10.3390/antibiotics14020130 .
[17]
Berger S, Siekmeyer M, Petzold-Quinque S, et al. Drowning and nonfatal drowning in children and adolescents: a subsequent retrospective data analysis[J]. Children (Basel), 2024, 11(4): 439. PMCID: PMC11049416. DOI: 10.3390/children11040439 .
[18]
Applbaum Y, Cohen-Cymberknoh M, Avniel-Aran A, et al. National trends in pediatric drowning: insights from the Israeli Ministry of Health registry-based cohort[J]. Eur J Pediatr, 2024, 183(11): 4921-4928. PMCID: PMC11473486. DOI: 10.1007/s00431-024-05771-5 .
[19]
Bellini T, Brisca G, D'Alessandro M, et al. Association between early radiographic chest findings and clinical outcomes in pediatric drowning: a retrospective study in a tertiary Italian hospital[J]. Eur J Pediatr, 2025, 184(2): 187. PMCID: PMC11813948. DOI: 10.1007/s00431-025-06029-4 .
[20]
Erşen T, Öncü K, Özcan Ö, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of seawater drowning cases in Sinop, a Turkish coastal city: a 13-year retrospective study[J]. BMC Emerg Med, 2025, 25(1): 210. PMCID: PMC12542062. DOI: 10.1186/s12873-025-01365-y .

Footnotes

所有作者均声明不存在利益冲突。

PDF(680 KB)
HTML

Accesses

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/